Tuesday, November 5, 2013

I LEARNED QUICKBOOKS MIGHT NOT SUCK!

CPA Andrew writes: If you know me, you know that I dislike QuickBooks. For a variety of reasons.  What I learned this week is that I might be wrong. I’ve always known that I can be wrong, I’m wrong all the time. But I might be wrong about QuickBooks.
The new version of their online accounting software has been completely redesigned and the “test drive” I took was very cool.
It seems to me that QuickBooks just shifted their business to being an “eco-system” rather than a piece of software you use. This is a brilliant move on their part and all those other online software programs that I used to recommend should be scared, very scared. A couple high points, just from the few minutes I spent playing around with it:
-Mobile devices usage is awesome. It lets you fill spare moments with doing a little accounting work, instead of being idle. All those little moments add up to not much focused accounting work needing to be done, is my guess. A brilliant strategy and very reflective of the way people use their devices today.
-Linking up bank and credit card accounts in the background lets the computer gather the data for you to process. QuickBooks has had something like this for a while already, but it seems much more streamlined and easier to alter, making it is easier to start and stop that work, instead of having to find hours at a time to get accounting done.
-The “overdue” and “needs attention” warnings are awesome. By keeping small business owners (who by and large are accounting novices) focused on a couple issues, they can make meaningful impact on their business without knowing exactly how or why.
-Changing from a license billing model to a monthly fee model. This is the best part of the whole thing. Having the data in the cloud, with up to three simultaneous users (in the mid-tier version) eliminates the largest problem we have had with QuickBooks. They have really used all the best of currently available technology to really give the software a 21st century face lift.
All in all, I give this a solid thumbs up. I have talked a lot of Sh*t on Quickbooks and Intuit. This is me saying I was wrong, and BRAVO.
Look for more info on this later, as I start developing some guidebooks on how to run company on this software! I think this will be the backbone of how I tell business owners to run their business.
CPA Andrew Previously Wrote:   WHY QUICKBOOKS WILL ALWAYS BE SUBPAR

Posted on 6:22 AM | Categories:

Xero now a $4 billion company / Xero shares hit new record / Xero now worth more than Telecom

Christopher Adams for the NZ Herald writes: Online accounting software provider Xero has become a $4 billion company. After opening at $30.13 this morning, shares in the Wellington-based firm rose 4.8 per cent to reach $31.69 just before midday, giving the business a market capitalisation of $4.04 billion.  The company's value now lags only behind Fletcher Building ($6.6 billion), Auckland Airport ($4.6 billion) and Telecom ($4.3 billion).  It's been less than three weeks since Xero's valuation passed through the $3 billion mark.  The company's announcement last month that it had raised $180 million of new capital from high-profile investors including Facebook billionaire Peter Thiel sparked a major rally in the stock.
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Fairfax NZ News writes:  Strong demand from overseas investors is driving Xero's share price to new highs, brokers say.  The cloud accounting software company has climbed further on the NZX, rising this morning to fourth most valuable company on the exchange - worth more than Contact Energy - after its shares consolidated above $30. Later this afternoon the stock became third biggest, with a market capitalisation of $4.3 billion, surpassing Telecom.
Shares in the cloud software firm gained 2 per cent yesterday and were trading above the $30 mark this morning. Xero's share price traded at an all-time high of $33.89 this afternoon before slipping to $33.60, up 11. 5 per cent.
The only companies with a higher value are now Auckland International Airport ($4.6b) and Fletcher Building ($6.7b).
Craigs Investment Partners head dealer Bryon Burke said the rocketing share price was coming from overseas demand and short supply of shares.
"It's certainly been priced on demand versus supply."
It was not clear whether the buying was coming from Asia or Australia, he said.
It was hard for New Zealanders to understand why the share price of a company that did not make any money was continuing to climb, Burke said.
"How do you value it?"
Xero said last month it expected to generate revenue of $30.3m for the six months to September 30, although profits are yet to eventuate as the company focuses on growth.
On October 31 it said its net cash outflow for the September quarter was $13.1m, but after raising money from a share issue priced at $18.15 a share it had a  cash balance of $230m. 
Burke said overseas investors were not as worried about traditional methods of valuing a company, he said.
Tyndall Investment Management domestic equities manager Ricky Ward said the continued ascent of Xero's stock would probably be a surprise to most people.
"I think people struggle to understand how you value a company like Xero."
If investors tried to apply more traditional valuing techniques to the company they would tie themselves in knots, Ward, said.
"It's very hard to say whether it warrants being a $50 stock or a $1 stock."
In the past a lot of companies caught up in tech bubbles did not succeed, he said.
However, Xero had sufficient capital to get through any challenging times and the company was still growing.
Ward said personally, he thought the company's share price had got a "little bit ahead of itself".
However, while there were overseas investors buying a few thousand shares a day with limited supply the stock would remain at a high price, he said.
The company would really have to disappoint to scare off its overseas investors, Ward said, adding that unless that happened there was no reason for Xero's share price to come down.
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Xero now worth more than Telecom



 NBR Staff writes: Xero shares [NZX: XRO] rose 11.18% in midday trading to hit a new high of $33.50 - sending the cloud accounting software company past a new market cap milestone of $4.27 billion - edging it ahead of Telecom as NZ's largest listed technology company.
Telecom [NZX:TEL], which was down 0.85% on the session for a market cap of $4.24 billion (a valuation underpinned by $4.2 billion revenue and $236 million net profit iin its 2013 financial year).
There was no major news for the company today. But it would not have hurt that Mr Drury posed with Intuit CEO Brad Smith at a trade show in Las Vegas during a social chat. Analysts tell NBR the US market is the key to Xero justifying its heady stock price - and Intuit, which holds a near-monopoly in personal and small business accounting with its Quicken and QuickBooks products, is the company standing in its way. The question is whether Intuit will rollover, push back hard, or buy Xero.
Loss-making Xero, which says its monthly subscriptions imply annual revenue of $70 million  has been on a tear since October 14 when it announced it has issued new shares to raise $180 million in new capital - most of it from re-upping US investors.
The latest rise means Mr Drury's 18.47% stake in Xero is now worth $789 million.
Forsyth Barr (the only major brokerage covering the stock) upped its rating from "reduce" to "hold" with the mid-October capital raising,and increased its 12-month target price by 39% to $20.30. 
Analyst Andrew Harvey-Green says evidence points to Xero being successful in the US, but the jury is still out on whether it will successful enough to justify its heady valuation. ForBarr describes the stock as speculative.
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Fifth straight day of monster gains for Xero
UPDATE  / Oct 18: Xero has surged for a fifth straight day. In midday trading, its shares were up 7.94% to $27.20 for a new market cap high of $3.47 billion.
The online accounting software's latest climb came as CEO Rod Drury was named EY 2013 NZ Entrepreneur of the Year.
A week ago, shares were at $17.94. The stock, which listed at $1 in 2007, and sunk to 68 cents in 2008, is now up 409% over the past 12 months.
The $180 million capital raising announced Monday diluted Mr Drury's stake in Xero from 18.47% to 17.03%.
However, he is still the largest single shareholder, and his stock is now worth around $578 million.
See Mr Drury's comments on his company's rocketing valuation here.
Growth stock Xero (which expects to make a loss this year on annualised revenue running at a rate of $70 million) has left many traditional stocks in its wake as its quadrupled in value over the past year. They include Chorus (just under $1 billion), Sky City ($2.3 billion), Sky TV ($2.4 billion) and Mighty River Power (just over $3 billion).
Xero is now closing in on NZ's largest tech stock, Telecom, whose $4.1 billion market cap is underpinned by $4.2 billion revenue and $236 million net profit iin its 2013 financial year.
The online accounting software company recently reported 213,000 paying customers. It's shooting for at least 1 million. A key part of its strategy is taking on the incumbent Intuit in the US market.

Comments and questions
25


$14,000 per customer, so if they get 1,000,000 customers $14B market cap and twice that of Fletcher Building. Market darling now, but for how much longer?

Value per customer today is not how it works.
The valuation is based on Net Present Value of the future cashflows, and thus factors in the likelihood that they will get 1,000,000 customers.

Based on Net Present value of future cashflows + a touch of FOMO me thinks.
Just going to take the opportunity to anonymously gloat that I bought in at 79c. A 32 bagger!. Except that it is not in the bag as I can't bring myself to sell.
I suspect a lot of the shareholders are like me. It doesn't matter what the current price is - I don't want to sell as I enjoy being a part of it and am a believer in the potential for Xero being a global leader in a huge market.
I also suspect that most shareholders are also business owners and accountants. We use the product and understand how good it is compared with the incumbents. As business owners we also appreciate the excellent execution to date and the challenges they have overcome.
I also feel very well informed with my investment given the complete openness of the numbers and diatribes of management's inner thoughts on social media. It is an open book with no surprises and I don't know of any other company like it.

Lance - when the music stops and they can't raise money - (WHICH ALWAYS HAPPENS) - the number of customers won't count. Pleasingly they have a war chest and will need about 12 months of expenses to restructure the firm to produce profits to survive when this finally occurs.
This price doesnt stack up using any criteria and everytime someone says there has been a paradigm shift, it is shortly after that the bubble bursts. Unfortunately I see years of tears coming.

Or - it is just a bunch of rational people investing into *something* that rationally can be expected to increase in value. The more people that pile in - the more prices go up - which reinforces the trend.
It has nothing to do with DCFs or any fundamental analysis.

It depends on where the investment is coming from. If it's US based funds investing long (rather than trading), and that's where the latest placement came from, then their investments will be based on some very serious financial models and thinking.
But today, the biggest trading day ever, only saw $24 million of trades, or 0.6% of market cap. That's still well short of the average for Intuit, which is about 0.75% traded per day. What this means is that Xero is still relatively thinly traded and so will have higher volatility.

Ok, this is just absurd! 3Billion!! The really hilarious thing about this is Drury et al could give a toss! They've now got 250M in the bank (yep that was super smart) and what is actually going to drive the price down..? There's certainly nothing sensible driving it up..!

There are no Mum&Pop investors here, to buy 5K share they need to shell out 150k. They would prefer to buy a house than Xero shares. Most of these trades are from professional investors, traders, funds. They analyse and invest. Take a deep look at the trade sizes.
These days Xero shares are one of the biggest New Zealand export.

I spot a train wreck about to happen. The price is getting away from the reality of what the company can earn. At some point the punters who bought in at say even $12/$15 are gonna want to see a dividend of at least 7%/9% on their initial investment. That means net payable earnings of $1/$1.35 per share at least. Those who bought in at $18/$20 are gonna be demanding $1.40/$1.75 ps or hey will sell out big time and the price will drop like a stone. You cant keep selling promises as the tech wreck in the late 90s proved.

Market cap is actually $3.2B - but what's a couple of hundred mil between friends!

I struggle to see the value at $3.2b. However, I am sure down the track an eventual listing in the US or takeout offer at $100 a share by Oracle or something crazy like that will make it all seem so cheap now. You have to take your hat off to these guys. They have done a great job to get this far in such a great position. They deserve the reward.

So when are they projected to actually book a profit? Seems like a speculators playground.

There are many examples in the pharmaceutical industry where companies run up substantial losses in order to get a drug developed ASAP so as to maximise returns before patent loss and the opportunity is global. The examples are numerous so it has occured and provided the drug [product] is successful the returns can be stellar

Great idea, bad example. Most drug companies prosper courtesy of govt subsidized health.

Can someone give me a historical example of a company that made no profit in the first few years but grew the customer base ahead of profits and then went on to be highly profitable. Would be great to understand this.

You could Google it - top result would probably be Google, or maybe Facebook. Twitter still not profitable but about to be listed at $10B. These are consumer businesses.
In the commercial space, look at the likes of Salesforce, LinkedIn, yammer.

I'm afraid that this has all the hallmarks of the dotcom bubble. What heady heights did Yahoo reach? Remind me.

I have used Quick books and myob. Neither..and I mean neither touch Xero for ease of use and integration. .and sharing with my advisors or accountant. That is why foremost I invested. .and still do.

Soooo...judging by some of the above comments a few people didn't bother to buy in?
Rational argument against, no problem. "Absurd" "A bubble" "Train wreck"! comments = sour grapes. A pretty common attitude in NZ unfortunately.

Its worth looking at the US market to see how other growing companies are being valued. Salesforce for instance has a US$30 market cap - yet isn't yet profitable. Others in a similar boat are Workday (US$13.9B) and Amazon ($150B).
You could value Xero based on current profit (none) or turnover ($30M). But it's also worth considering the size of the market they're in (25-30 million potential customers in the US alone) and their chance of success at winning a solid market share. Considering Xero already appear to lead the cloud accounting software markets in UK, Australia and NZ and have a growing US reputation their chances of success in the US and other markets looks positive.

As a Xero user I often wonder if many of the critics of Xero actually realise how powerful an intuitive and internationally adaptable cloud accounting system is. And today Xero announced another expansion being online drag and drop storage of documents so they link in with the accounting entry. Great idea. When one accounting firm moves to Xero in effect so do all of their clients, so once Xero gets a roll going in the US market, who knows how quickly market share will match company value.

They should do a scrip bid for Telecom! Yeehah, lets go Xero shareholders - make it NZ's biggest company by market value, then flog it off to Oracle for $100 a share. Well done Mr Drury, you deserve a medal and $1b in the bank! Nothing short of amazing...

Not sure if you're trolling or not.
Oracle is not in this space so I don't know why you would think they would be interested. Besides it would be a very brave CEO to buy a unprofitable company like this for several billion dollars.
Rod has made a fortune. Although people like him never walk away and retire, I could imagine very bad things would happen to this stock if he did. That's why I think it's a bubble. That and a doubling of share price with no market news.

Sky TV an example

Looking forward to the takeover bid from Rod for Telecom.
How the worm turns
Posted on 6:22 AM | Categories: