Monday, June 9, 2014

Intuit: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days


I just watched the film, "The Counselor" which had a great line, "That this is some sort of coincidence. Because they don't really believe in coincidences. They've heard of them. They've just never seen one."   No, we also don't believe in conspiracies....however it's kind of fun to read what some are thinking, no?  Who knows, maybe this fellow is onto something....exactly what we're not quite sure.....and on that note enjoy the writings of Markus Aarnio who for SeekingAlpha writes:

Summary

  • 5 insiders sold Intuit stock within one month.
  • The stock was not purchased by any insiders in the month of intensive selling.
  • 4 of these 5 insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%.
Intuit (INTU) provides business and financial management solutions for small businesses, consumers, and accounting professionals in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, India, and Singapore.
(click to enlarge)

Insider selling during the last 30 days

Here is a table of Intuit's insider activity during the last 30 days.
NameTitleTrade DateShares SoldOption Exercise & SaleRule 10b5-1Current OwnershipDecrease In Ownership
Mark FlournoyCAOJune 51,921YesNo0 shares + 3,744 options33.9%
Dan MaurerSVPJune 375,000YesNo17,265 shares + 112,812 options36.6%
Sasan GoodarziSVPMay 222,111NoNo3,179 shares39.9%
Brad SmithCEOMay 226,000NoYes303,937 shares + 600,966 options0.7%
Daniel WernikoffSVPMay 2318,000YesNo216 shares98.8%
There have been 103,032 shares sold by insiders during the last 30 days. Brad Smith sold his shares pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 plan. More details about the Rule 10b5-1 trading plan can be found from this link.

Insider selling by calendar month

Here is a table of Intuit's insider activity by calendar month.
MonthInsider selling / sharesInsider buying / shares
June 201476,9210
May 201426,1110
April 201400
March 201410,0000
February 2014100,0000
January 201400
December 20138,2260
November 201349,0000
October 201300
September 2013195,6320
August 2013213,9990
July 201300
June 201300
May 201300
April 201300
March 201322,7820
February 2013154,0000
January 201300
There have been 856,671 shares sold and there have been zero shares purchased by insiders since January 2013.

Financials

Intuit reported the fiscal 2014 third-quarter, which ended April 30, financial results on May 20 with the following highlights:
Revenue$2.4 billion
Net income$984 million
Cash$2.6 billion
Debt$499 million
The five insiders sold their shares after this report.

Outlook

Intuit's guidance is as follows:
 Q4/2014FY2014
Revenue$683-$713 million$4.475-$4.505 billion
GAAP EPS-$0.10 to -$0.12$3.08-$3.12

Competition

Intuit's competitors include Automatic Data Processing (ADP), and H&R Block (HRB). Here is a table comparing these companies.
CompanyINTUADPHRB
Market Cap:22.72B38.38B8.31B
Employees:8,00060,0002,200
Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy):0.140.07-0.58
Revenue:4.43B11.96B2.66B
Gross Margin:0.870.490.61
EBITDA:1.50B2.49B591.79M
Operating Margin:0.300.180.18
Net Income:844.00M1.44B259.30M
EPS:3.133.000.83
P/E:25.5426.5536.56
PEG (5 yr expected):1.712.441.65
P/S:5.093.173.07
Intuit has the highest P/S ratio among these three companies.
Here is a table of these competitors' insider activities this year.
CompanyInsider buying / sharesInsider selling / shares
ADP0324,383
HRB00
Automatic Data Processing has also seen intensive insider selling during the last 30 days.

Conclusion

There have been five different insiders selling Intuit, and there have not been any insiders buying Intuit during the last 30 days. Four of these five insiders decreased their holdings by more than 10%. Intuit has an insider ownership of 4.68%.

Before going short Intuit, I would like to get a bearish confirmation from the Point & Figure chart. The two main reasons for the proposed short entry are a relatively high P/S ratio, and the intensive insider-selling activity.

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