Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Burton G. Malkiel: You're Paying Too Much for Investment Help / Index funds have far outperformed the average active manager, and at a far lower cost to the investor.

Excluding index funds (which make market returns available even to small investors at close to zero expense), fees have risen substantially as a percentage of assets managed. In my judgment, investors have received no benefit from this increase in expense ratios.
The increase in fees could be justified if it reflected increasing returns for investors from active management, or if it improved the efficiency of the market. Neither of these arguments holds. Actively managed funds of publicly traded securities have consistently underperformed index funds—by roughly the differential in fees charged.

Passive portfolios that held all the stocks in a broad-based market index have substantially outperformed the average active manager since 1980. Therefore, the increase in fees likely represents a deadweight loss for investors.
There are substantial economies of scale in asset management. It is no more costly to place an order for 20,000 shares of stock than for 10,000 shares. The same annual report and similar filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission are required whether an investment fund has $100 million or $500 million in assets. The due diligence required for the investment manager is no different for a large mutual fund than for a small one. Modern technology has fully automated such tasks as dividend collection, tax reporting and client statements. Academic research has documented substantial economies of scale in mutual-fund administration.
In 1980, the equity mutual-fund industry managed less than $26 billion of assets. By 2010 the equity assets of the mutual-fund industry totaled almost $3.5 trillion. Substantial economies of scale could have been passed on to individual investors, resulting in lower expense ratios. But those economies appear to have been entirely captured by asset managers. The same finding holds for asset managers who cater to institutional investors.
In 1980, the annual expense ratio for all mutual funds (as measured by Lipper Analytic Services) was 66 basis points. In 2010, the equivalent (asset weighted) ratio was 69.2 basis points. But in 2010 almost 30% of mutual-fund assets were invested in low-cost index funds, which represented an insignificant share of assets in 1980. Thus the annual expense ratios for actively managed funds rose to 91 basis points from 66 basis points. While expense ratios paid by institutional investors are considerably lower than those paid by individual investors—by about 40%—these fees have not fallen over time as a percentage of assets managed.
However, index funds and their exchange-traded counterparts have allowed the individual investor to benefit from scale economies. Exchange-traded funds that track the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index or the Wilshire 5,000 Total Stock-Market Index are available to individual investors at expense ratios of five basis points or less.
There is another way of looking at these asset-management fees. Total fund assets increased 135 times since 1980, but the total expenses paid to equity mutual-fund managers increased 141 times (to $24,143 billion from $170.8 million).
Of course, when stated as a percentage of assets, these fees do look low—close to 1% of assets. But compare them with returns produced. If overall stock-market returns average, say, 7% a year, fees of 1% point are actually about 14% of stock-market returns. Mutual-fund fees take up well over 50% of dividend distributions.
Even these recalculations may substantially understate the real cost of active investment management. A more reasonable way to assess the benefits of active management is to measure fees as a percentage of the "excess" returns produced by active managers over the returns available from low-cost index funds. Overall, these excess returns seem nonexistent.
Why do investors continue to pay such high fees for financial services of such questionable value? Many may incorrectly judge the quality of investment advice by the price charged. Individual and institutional investors may suffer from overconfidence and truly believe that they can select the best investment managers and earn excess returns, despite historical evidence to the contrary.
Outperforming the consensus of hundreds of thousands of professionals at the world's major financial institutions is next to impossible. It has been for decades. Over long periods, about two-thirds of active managers are outperformed by the benchmark indexes. The one-third that may outperform the passive index in one period are generally not the same as in the next period. But investors can benefit from low-cost index funds and their exchange-traded cousins.
The lesson for investors is very clear: You can't control what markets can do, but you can control the costs you pay. The less you pay to the purveyors of investment services, the more there will be for you. The quintessential low-cost investment vehicles are index funds, which should comprise the core of every investment portfolio. The high fees charged for active management cannot be justified.
Mr. Malkiel is the chief investment officer of Wealthfront and serves on the advisory board of Rebalance IRA.
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  • I am not getting any investment help and...needless to say I am getting clobbered :(.
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  • It doesn't get any simpler than the Couch Potato Formula that Scott Burns suggests: put 1/2 in an intermediate term investment grade bond fund, the other 1/2 in a S&P 500 index fund, then twice a year balance the halves by appropriate exchanges/purchases. Management costs are virtually nil and you will outperform 75% of all managed funds. I use Vanguard funds, probably the cheapest.
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  • I'm assuming that Mr. Malkiel, an investment advisor himself, is about to be fired, and wanted to get a last explosion in before he took his pile to Monaco.

    But I find it odd that it hasn't occurred to him that people Like Jamie Dimon, and certainly Lloyd Blankfein, probably know "a guy". This piece could be more dangerous than the panning of Islam by that former Muslim in yesterday's WSJ.
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    • Bogle has been on the "we Re paying too much management fee" train for such a long time. In his case, it suits him, given Vanguard 's index focus. But a whole bunch of band wagon jumpers are on this management fee topic now.

      However, if the whole industry shifted to index funds, then it becomes much easier for an actively managed fund to beat the market. Right now, they are competing against each other.

      Also, the use of averages is misleading. So, the average fund is more or less inline with the market after fee. But there are a whole bunch of funds which beat it and a whole bunch who are behind. The ones who underperformance consistently lose assets and get shutdown. But while they are in existence they are pulling down the average.
      1 Recommendation

  • Burton's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street taught us this in the 1970's prior to index funds for the Dow 30 or the S & P 500 even being in existence.

    I read his analysis back then, followed it, and am happy now that I did so.
    3 Recommendations
    • "I read his analysis...followed it, and am happy now that I did so."

      Me too. I read his latest 'Random Walk' only a few months ago and learned a lot, an infinite imp as I new nothing prior. Still, Malkiel's no Oracle of Omaha, no Buffett - no Prognosticator of Princeton by his own admission, so what gives? He shines on that aspect of things in his book, maybe being honest about the situation, maybe not.
      So I have Baby Berkshire BRK/B, Vanguard VTI, Westport Innovations WPRT and Chiquita Banana CQB, so far and seem to be doing ok. I owe Bernanke more than anyone else as he's inflating stox wildly w his warp 9 money printing while the rest of the poor suckers in the obaeconomy trudge along under kruggonomics/obamanomics. What I really need now is insider info from Bernanke on when he's going to layoff his printers so I can jump out of the mkt just prior.
      It's a sad situation overall. Maybe people will finally realize socialism doesn't work, maybe not.
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  • I think most of what Burton said is close to true, but I do have a few concerns. If everybody is indexing doesn't that potentially leave a whole bunch of securities not included in the indices to be undervalued because of lack of interest from investors? Conversely, could that mean that stocks included in the indices become overvalued due to increased demand from investors? If so, that could leave many investors with returns below active managers even when including fees. Of course, that lies in the assumption that active managers will pick up on the under owned and undervalued securities and that could definitely not be the case.

    Another problem I had with this piece is that I don't think people really research the active managers or the fund before buying it. I think a lot of people pick whatever is the flavor of the month or the year or just pick a fund because it has a name like Emerging Market Growth Value Blend or some bull spit like that. Heck, I bet a lot of people don't even bother to look at the fees before buying a fund.

    Finally, there are other issues with active management besides cost. A big reason active managers don't outperform is that open ended mutual funds are required to own something like 30 stocks or more for "diversification" reasons. But, there may not be 30 great investments out there that will actually outperform, there may only be like 5 or 10. Plus, non-index open ended fund managers worry a lot about investor withdrawals and this can hurt performance. Closed ended mutual fund managers don't have these problems because there are less restrictions. I would advise investors to seriously consider CEFs, as some have lower fees (though not index like fees) and are trading below net asset value. I worry index funds will become a commodity business in the future and could possibly leave sections of the market illiquid.
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  • There is a difference between investment returns and investor returns, for some reason those that write articles like this never seem to mention it.
    2 Recommendations

  • all markets are forward looking yet people pay big bucks to a guy who advertizes his past performance and can't predict the future. now doesn't that make sense--truly amazing! to save fees, read bernstein's 4 pillars of investing and truly understand the significance of the gordon eqn.; and always keep reversion to the mean in mind.
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  • Mr. Malkeil makes a Major Assumption, people who invest in index funds will stay fully invested regardless of market volatility. If you read anything about behavioral finance, this is NOT the case. So, people will buy high and sell low, this is what kills your performance (market timing), and people's gut always gets it wrong. Not that you are in an active or passive fund. So...if you find the right active manager, there are several, they will handily beat their respective benchmark, but, people lose patience and pull money at absolutely the wrong time. Just look up one fund SHRAX and you will see what I am talking about.
    2 Recommendations


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  • "Outperforming the consensus of hundreds of thousands of professionals at the world's major financial institutions is next to impossible" it's not and there are fund managers that do in fact have long-term track records that beat the indexes. The problem is that there are thousands of managers that don't and there is no sense in paying for under performance of those managers, so be careful in how you choose.
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  • How'd you indexers like having Apple as your largest holding when it fell from +700 to below 400? Or having a heavy, heavy overweight in megacap tech at the NASDAQ peak in 2000? Or having financials as your largest sector in the 2007 bubble?

    Investors as a group cannot outperform the average, by definition. But an individual investor or an individual advisor may do so.
    2 Recommendations

  • Perhaps the problem is that people aren't paying enough... I mean, people pay 5% to Realtor's for a single transaction that requires far less expertise than asset management. My 2 cents...
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  • I guess there is no harm in repeating the truth over and over, but John Bogle was persuasive on this point decades ago. Any "investor" who does not know this has done zero homework, so I am not too sympathetic. That said, there are reasons NOT to limit oneself completely to index funds. I do not believe the same arguments apply to foreign index funds, although I have not seen a legitimate study. There, I suspect good active managers can beat a broad index, since some of those markets are not yet "efficient." Also, it is perfectly reasonable for an investor to want to emphasize a particular sector or style, even if a total market index will probably do better over an infinite timescale. Most people don't have infinity as their time horizon.
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  • I challenge ANY fund manager to beat my four biggest holdings over the last thirty years. XOM, MO/PM, MCD, and PEP. My beta is below market, my dividend yields are above market, and these cos. have rock solid balance sheets. Best of all, no fees........
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